Chuck Todd: Jeb Bush Exploring 2016 Run 'Helps Hillary'

Appearing on Wednesday's NBC Today, Meet the Press moderator Chuck Todd spun former Florida Governor Jeb Bush announcing that he was "exploring" the possibility of running for president in 2016 as a boost for the candidacy of Hillary Clinton: "By the way, the big Jeb Bush announcement helps Hillary because it'll scare Democrats and rally them around Hillary even more."

Moments earlier, co-host Savannah Guthrie touted support for Clinton in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll: "Obviously it's pretty clear Hillary Clinton is running, so we'll all wait for an official announcement. She polls very, very well, as you can see." The numbers on screen showed 50% support for Clinton and 48% opposed.

Todd responded: "But polarizing....I mean this is what you would expect. It reflects the country. It's what you would expect, if she won or lost it would be by a point or two in either direction."

Discussing a Jeb Bush candidacy at the top of the segment, Todd highlighted 57% opposed to the idea, noting:

...some of it is conservative Republicans. And I think that's the reasoning in his head why he went early, because he's got work to do to win over skeptical conservatives who sit there and say, "We went with one Bush, he let us down, we went with a second Bush, he let us down. Why should we believe the third Bush, even though he's been more conservative in his life, why should we believe you'll be a real conservative?"

Guthrie observed: "And Jeb Bush has taken the positions that are outside the thinking of conservative activists?"

Todd replied: "That's right, immigration, education, Common Core, those are the ones. And he has said he's going to be sort of a Bulworth about it, 'Hey, I'm not going to placate conservatives on those two issues.' But guess what? They could really burn him."

Actually, Politico [1] made the Bulworth movie reference, not Bush.  

There was no similar mention of Clinton having a problem with the left-wing base of the Democratic Party.  

Here is a full transcript of the December 17 segment:

7:16 AM ET

GUTHRIE: Well, it's 2014, as we know, but that's no reason not to talk about the 2016 race for the White House. And it's heating up now. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has taken a big step toward seeking the Republican nomination, announcing on Facebook that he has decided to, quote, "actively explore the possibility of running." And he had more to say to our Miami station, WTVJ. Take a listen.

JEB BUSH: If I can get comfortable with being a candidate that gives people hope that we can fix some of these big problems that we have so that we can take advantage of our opportunities, that's what I'm pursuing. It's not an easy decision, though, because it is a life-changing one for a long while.

[ON-SCREEN HEADLINE: 2016 Speculation Heats Up; Jeb Bush "Exploring" Run Amid New NBC News Poll]

GUTHRIE: Let's turn to Chuck Todd, NBC's political director, moderator of Meet the Press. We're in the Meet the Press studio right now. Chuck, so, Jeb has dipped his toe in the presidential waters.

TODD: Dipped his toe?

GUTHRIE: Maybe his whole foot?

TODD: This is basically – you don't announce you're exploring and then not run. Most of the time it means your exploring, you're in. This was a big shock.

GUTHRIE: Let's put the poll number up because you have new poll numbers this morning.

TODD: We do.

[ON-SCREEN GRAPHIC: Support Jeb Bush for 2016? No, 57%; Yes, 31%]  

GUTHRIE: You polled Jeb Bush, you polled all the Republican front-runners. And when you see 31% yes, what do you make of that?

TODD: That they would support – the 57[%] no. I think the 57[%] you have to wonder about a little bit because some of it is conservative Republicans. And I think that's the reasoning in his head why he went early, because he's got work to do to win over skeptical conservatives who sit there and say, "We went with one Bush, he let us down, we went with a second Bush, he let us down. Why should we believe the third Bush, even though he's been more conservative in his life, why should we believe you'll be a real conservative?"

GUTHRIE: And Jeb Bush has taken the positions that are outside the thinking of conservative activists?

TODD: At least where we are today. That's right, immigration, education, Common Core, those are the ones. And he has said he's going to be sort of a Bulworth about it, "Hey, I'm not going to placate conservatives on those two issues." But guess what? They could really burn him.

GUTHRIE: And as we roll through the numbers, you've got what Mitt Romney looks like as a 2016 [candidate]. Apparently he is really considering it?

[ON-SCREEN GRAPHIC: Support Mitt Romney for 2016? No, 60%; Yes, 33%]  

TODD: Well, I'll tell you though, this is another impact of Jeb Bush's early decision, I think this takes all the air out of this quiet balloon that was inflating for Mitt Romney and there was a lot of big donors that said, "You know what? Maybe we should just rally around Romney." But Jeb getting in, I think, this dries up the Romney support.

GUTHRIE: Well, let's talk about the Democrats. Obviously it's pretty clear Hillary Clinton is running, so we'll all wait for an official announcement. She polls very, very well, as you can see.

[ON-SCREEN GRAPHIC: Hillary Clinton for 2016? Yes, 50%; No, 48%]  

TODD: But polarizing.

GUTHRIE: Well, this is a general election. Yeah, exactly. This reflects the country.

TODD: I mean this is what you would expect. It reflects the country. It's what you would expect, if she won or lost it would be by a point or two in either direction.

GUTHRIE: So very quickly, you have a poll number that might be trouble for a Hillary Clinton candidacy, that 71% want a direction for the country different than President Obama.

TODD: And this is going to be her challenge, right? She has to walk that line of change and yet continuity with Obama.

By the way, the big Jeb Bush announcement helps Hillary because it'll scare Democrats and rally them around Hillary even more.

GUTHRIE: Alright, it begins. Chuck Todd, thank you so much.