The surprise box-office boom for the cartoon "Despicable Me" is
making it clear again to Hollywood this summer that family films are
the most likely to be top-grossing films. "Toy Story 3" is number one
for 2010, not only among the critics, but among the people as well.
"Despicable Me" already has broken into the top ten box-office hits for
the year to date with almost $130 million in ticket sales.
It happens over and over again. And still the "executives" are
caught off guard. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out. Nobody needs
a graphing calculator. Bring out the whole family, and you bring out a
bigger audience. It's summertime, and the kids are bored. If the whole
family doesn't go, the driving-aged teenager gets assigned to take the
young ones to the movies, sometimes more than once.
(Memo to Hollywood: Really, truly, this is how it works.)
And yet, The Hollywood Reporter finds the movie market gurus
slightly embarrassed at what they call the "family stampede." Family
films have well outpaced pre-release projections repeatedly since May,
and the studio bosses are puzzled over why these movies "outperform"
their guesses. "The simplest answer is that the tracking doesn't
include the young kids themselves," Disney distribution boss Chuck
Viane said.
"It's just harder to get a handle on what kids are thinking,"
another brilliant marketer guessed. "Tracking surveys are based on what
people express in phone and Internet surveys, and you're not going to
find the young kids that way." Pre-release tracking surveys focus on
parents. "The nag factor is what drives those kind of movies," a studio
executive tartly declared. "The parents might be less inclined than the
kids to see a picture, but then the kids pester the parents, and the
rest is history."
So why don't the studio bosses start factoring in the possibility of
a "nag factor" from young children, wanting to go to the movies with
parents who demand quality for their children, and make some movies
accordingly? No million-dollar marketing exec has thought of that yet?
"There can be a disconnect in tracking sometimes about how far a
picture will reach across all audiences," said Sony distribution
president Rory Bruer, whose gone-to-China remake of "The Karate Kid"
debuted last month with a much-better-than expected $55.7 million.
"There's no doubt that word-of-mouth is important in that aspect."
Maybe the studio underestimated the affinity of parents for the first
version of the film, released back in 1984. It's well on its way to
grossing $200 million.
Sometimes, pre-tracking surveys are wrong the other way,
overestimating turnout. Last fall, pre-release surveys suggested the
Michael Jackson tribute film "This Is It" could ring up "$40 million or
more" on its first weekend. The actual figure was a lot less: $23
million.
"Despicable
Me" is a great example of the "out-performed expectations" story line.
The Universal cartoon with the inept bald-headed villain who learns to
love and parent three young girls grossed $56.4 million in its opening
weekend, although the "experts" expected a much lower $30 to $35
million weekend.
"People think it was a whole host of things contributing to the big
opening," one executive told the Hollywood Reporter. "You had some
fresh-looking characters, funny trailers and a huge boost from running
those trailers with other hit family films over the past several
weeks." Surveys had suggested "tepid" interest from consumers.
Anyone watching NBC or Universal's cable channels were subjected to
repeated on-screen promos during their favorite shows. NBC also ran a
30-minute "behind the scenes" infomercial on the opening night of the
film, since Friday night TV in the summertime isn't a hot spot for
advertisers.
Only one R-rated movie has grossed over $100 million this year, the
Leonardo di Caprio horror flick "Shutter Island." It has just been
squeezed out of the top ten by "Despicable Me." Three movies have
grossed over $300 million to top the 2010 list: "Toy Story 3" (a daring
G), "Alice in Wonderland" (PG), and "Iron Man 2" (PG-13). Three more
movies have grossed over $200 million: "Twilight: The Eclipse Saga"
(PG-13) and the family cartoons "Shrek Forever After" (PG) and "How to
Train Your Dragon" (PG).
Why can't greedy Hollywood just look at the math and put their money where the American public's eyes want to go?
Here's what should follow: more respect from the movie awards shows
for these animated films. "Toy Story 3" drew rave reviews across the
board. The St. Petersburg Times said it "isn't merely the best movie of
the summer - even with summer just kicking in - but an immediate
candidate for best of the year." Don't bet the mortgage.
