Journal Story Describes the End of the World As We Know It
Harvard professors
connection of current events to pre-World War I ignores mountains of
good economic news.
By Dan Gainor [1]
August 4, 2005
The economy is growing at 3.4 percent, unemployment is at a mere 5
percent, inflation is less than 3 percent and even The New York
Times says Economic Indicators for June Show U.S. on Sound
Footing. So whats an investor to do?
If you listen to Harvard history professor Niall
Ferguson, there is only one answer:
Panic!
Fergusons theories about impending global doom were
written up in the Aug. 4 Wall Street Journal and also appeared in
The Washington Post, which has a deal to rerun Journal stories.
Rather than focus on the ongoing strong economic news, the Post ran
a piece about the dangers of World War III that was buried on the
back of the Journals C section. That was one of only two Journal
stories the Post ran in its Business section.
The article painted an incredibly gloomy picture.
According to Ferguson, Globalization could end in our time, not
with a whimper but with a bang. Fergusons big difficulty,
according to the Journal, is how to design a perfect portfolio for
coping with the outbreak of World War III. That portfolio, the
article said, includes gold to protect against a sense of
exaggerated security, according to Ferguson.
The story, written by the Journals Michael R. Sesit,
described the uncanny similarities between the current era of
globalization and the original one of roughly 1880-1914, which first
harnessed the powers of global communications and swift transport to
link the world economically. According to Sesit, That ended with
the June 28, 1914, assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz
Ferdinand and the onset of World War I.
Both papers included a handy graph that listed the
similarities between the two eras. Oddly enough, good economic
news was bad news to Ferguson. Deregulated capital markets and
low inflation were two things the different time periods had in
common. In addition, Sesits article mentioned that Stock market
volatility was abating as another similarity. Apparently, these
positive economic indicators foreshadow a global tragedy, if
Fergusons projections are followed.
Several other items on the list would probably appear
no matter what modern time period was chosen, including: new
regional powers with global aspirations, growing great power
rivalry, and state-sponsored terrorism.
While the chart claimed that proliferation of war is
not a reality now, unlike 1880-1914, and that expansion of
democracy is a reality, it disregarded these major factors.
Ferguson, who professes knowledge of history, also ignored ongoing
conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Sudan and elsewhere.
Since good economic news is apparently bad to Ferguson
and scary to both the Post and Journal, here are a few additional
goodies to send them running for the hills or out stocking up on
gold:
-
According to the
July 30, 2005, Washington Post,the U.S. economy expanded at a
healthy pace, the government reported yesterday.
-
The Aug. 2, 2005
Los Angeles Times reported that The U.S. factory sector grew more
than expected in July, heralding a strong start for the economy in
the third quarter
-
And the Aug. 3,
2005, New York Times quoted Pierre Ellis, senior economist at
Decision Economics in New York, saying The June gains in personal
spending and income point to a pretty firm close to the second
quarter, which puts the economy in a good position at the start of
the third quarter. The underlying trend of growth is fairly
solid.
-
Unlike 1914,
several states have the ability to devastate whole cities or even
countries with nuclear bombs. That might influence most nations
willingness to embrace World War III.
-
Even the famous
Doomsday Clock, a relic of the Cold War, called the world's
most recognizable symbol of nuclear danger. has seen far worse
times. The clock now stands at seven minutes to midnight. Five
other times in the clocks history, it has been worse, including
as recently as 1988.