On Friday's CBS This Morning, Jan Crawford spotlighted that "the economic and political climate today is more similar to years when incumbent presidents lost than when they won."
The correspondent pointed out the similarity between polling numbers
today and in 1992, when George H.W. Bush was running for reelection:
"Gallup has asked voters whether they're satisfied with the way things
in the country are going. Today, only 24 percent say they're satisfied.
That's closest to the 20 percent low in May 1992."
Despite this, anchor Charlie Rose tried to shift the blame away from President Obama: "It looks like this is a situation where President Obama fears most the thing he cannot control, which is the economy."
Crawford devoted much of her report to putting the close race between
Obama and Mitt Romney into a historical context, and particularly
zeroed-in on the 1992 election:
CRAWFORD:
Going into the summer, polls have the candidates in a statistical dead
heat, but as any previous candidate will tell you, polls in May don't
mean much in November. In May 2004, the last time a sitting president
ran for reelection, George W. Bush was losing by eight points to John
Kerry. But after a tough campaign on national security and growing
economic confidence, Bush won. By contrast, his father was the incumbent
in 1992, and in May of that year, he was leading Bill Clinton. But over
the summer, Americans' confidence in the economy dropped, and George H.
W. Bush lost his lead and the White House.
The CBS journalist then played two soundbites from Major Garrett of the
National Journal, who explained that "President Obama is weaker than
Jimmy Carter, who lost; stronger than George Herbert Walker Bush, who
lost; and weaker than every modern American president who sought
reelection and won. They were all above 50 percent approval. The
President is not. He's around 46 percent. That's a danger zone."
Near the end of the segment, Crawford pointed out the similar Gallup
poll numbers between Obama in 2012 and Bush in 1992, but added that
"there is some good news out there for the President. Voters say they
like President Obama, that he seems more likeable and seems to care more
about average Americans."
Rose brought on CBS political director John Dickerson after the report,
and began with his Obama "cannot control the economy" the statement.
Dickerson replied, "That's exactly right," but then took a similar path
as Crawford in highlighting the negative historical context for the
President:
DICKERSON: The lesson of history is that if voters blame you for their
economic troubles, you're not going to have a second inauguration. For the last three incumbent presidents - Ford, Carter, and Bush in 1992 - the unemployment rate was at about 7.6 [percent]. Well, it's at 8.1 today, and no president has won reelection with an unemployment rate above 7.2 percent.
ROSE: So does that mean that the Obama forces and the Obama campaign
has to tear down the Romney narrative more than build up their own?
DICKERSON: That's right. They've got to do two things: one, try and
convince voters to stop looking at the present and think about the
future. Voters are a little bit brighter and sunnier about the future.
But the other thing they've got to do is what you focus on, which is
disqualify Mitt Romney as an alternative, and that's part of what George
W. Bush did in his reelection campaign, which is disqualify John Kerry
on the national security question. What the problem - and the
difference for President Obama is - George W. Bush had pretty good
ratings on the question of who can handle the question of terror, which
was top of mind. President Obama's ratings on economy, the top of mind
issue for voters, are quite bad.
The full transcript of the Jan Crawford and John Dickerson segments
from Friday's CBS This Morning, which ran back-to-back starting 10
minutes into the 7 am Eastern hour:
CHARLIE ROSE: Now to presidential politics: on Thursday, Democrats
opened a new attack on Mitt Romney, focusing on his one term as governor
of Massachusetts nearly ten years ago.
ERICA HILL: As we've reported, new polls show Romney gaining ground on
President Obama. So, what do those polls mean? We have five more months
of this campaigning to go.
Jan Crawford has some answers for us. Jan, good morning.
[CBS News Graphic: "Poll Position: Comparing Obama-Romney To Past Races"]
JAN CRAWFORD: Well, good morning, Erica. I mean, polls - they don't
predict things. They just kind of reflect where people are on the day
they're taken. So yeah, we've got these polls. The recent polls - they
may look promising for Mitt Romney, but we also see the President
working really hard to change that.
CRAWFORD (voice-over): Campaigning last night in Iowa, President Obama
continued to hammer Mitt Romney for his time as head of a successful
private equity firm.
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (from campaign event): There may be value for
that kind of experience, but it's not in the White House. (audience
cheers and applauds)
CRAWFORD: Romney's campaign events in West Philadelphia focused on
education, what he called the civil rights issue of our time.
Going into the summer, polls have the candidates in a statistical dead
heat, but as any previous candidate will tell you, polls in May don't
mean much in November. In May 2004, the last time a sitting president
ran for reelection, George W. Bush was losing by eight points to John
Kerry. But after a tough campaign on national security and growing
economic confidence, Bush won. By contrast, his father was the incumbent
in 1992, and in May of that year, he was leading Bill Clinton. But over
the summer, Americans' confidence in the economy dropped, and George H.
W. Bush lost his lead and the White House.
MAJOR GARRETT, NATIONAL JOURNAL WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Anything
that hurts the U.S. economy right now does not help the President.
CRAWFORD: According to Gallup, the economic and political climate today
is more similar to years when incumbent presidents lost than when they
won.
GARRETT: At this stage of his presidency, seeking re-election,
President Obama is weaker than Jimmy Carter, who lost; stronger than
George Herbert Walker Bush, who lost; and weaker than every modern
American president who sought reelection and won. They were all above 50
percent approval. The President is not. He's around 46 percent. That's a
danger zone.
CRAWFORD: There are other troubling signs for the President. For 20
years, Gallup has asked voters whether they're satisfied with the way
things in the country are going. Today, only 24 percent say they're
satisfied. That's closest to the 20 percent low in May 1992 in George
H.W. Bush's only term.
[CBS News Graphic: "Satisfied With Direction Of The U.S.: May 2012, 24%; May 1992, 20%; Source: Gallup Poll"]
CRAWFORD: (on-camera): Now, for winning presidents, like George W. Bush
and Bill Clinton, those numbers were higher. More Americans were
satisfied with how things in the country were going. But there is some
good news out there for the President. Voters say they like President
Obama, that he seems more likeable and seems to care more about average
Americans. So, we've got these strengths; we've got the weaknesses; all
of this makes this race going into the summer a toss-up.
ROSE: Jan Crawford, thank you very much. Also in Washington, CBS News political director John Dickerson. John, good morning.
JOHN DICKERSON: Good morning, Charlie.
ROSE: It looks like this is a situation where President Obama fears most the thing he cannot control, which is the economy.
[CBS News Graphic: "Race For The White House: Where Campaign Stands Heading Into Memorial Day"]
DICKERSON: That's exactly right. I mean, the lesson of history is that
if voters blame you for their economic troubles, you're not going to
have a second inauguration. For the last three incumbent presidents -
Ford, Carter, and Bush in 1992 - the unemployment rate was at about 7.6
[percent]. Well, it's at 8.1 today, and no president has won reelection
with an unemployment rate above 7.2 percent.
ROSE: So does that mean that the Obama forces and the Obama campaign
has to tear down the Romney narrative more than build up their own?
[CBS News Graphic: "Race For The White House: Breaking Down Obama-Romney Strategies"]
DICKERSON: That's right. They've got to do two things: one, try and
convince voters to stop looking at the present and think about the
future. Voters are a little bit brighter and sunnier about the future.
But the other thing they've got to do is what you focus on, which is
disqualify Mitt Romney as an alternative, and that's part of what George
W. Bush did in his reelection campaign, which is disqualify John Kerry
on the national security question. What the problem - and the difference
for President Obama is, George W. Bush had pretty good ratings on the
question of who can handle the question of terror, which was top of
mind. President Obama's ratings on economy, the top of mind issue for
voters, are quite bad.
[CBS News Graphic: "Satisfied With Country's Direction? May: 2012:
Barack Obama, 24%; 2004: George W. Bush, 36%; 1996: Bill Clinton, 37%;
1992: George H.W. Bush, 20%; Source: Gallup Poll"]
ERICA HILL: When it comes to that narrative that they're trying to
paint of Mitt Romney with Bain Capital, there's been a lot of talk about
the response Mitt Romney has had to that. Is he going to change that
narrative, to try to focus on the positives for him?
DICKERSON: Well, Mitt Romney's going to do two things on the Bain
question: one, he's going to change the topic. He's going to say, I had
25 years in business; and then, move on and go back to the President's
record. The Romney campaign wants one thing: this election to be a
referendum, a thumbs-up or thumbs-down on President Obama's stewardship
of the economy, and they'll always continue to go back to that. But his
other - the other thing Mitt Romney will do is talk about it, to the
extent he has to, about Bain, to say, I have special knowledge about the
economy: I turned companies around; I turned the Olympics around; I
turned Massachusetts around; and pitch himself as a turn-around expert
in a time when the economy needs turning around.
[CBS News Graphic: "The Washington Post/ABC News Poll: Presidential Race: Obama, 49%; Romney, 46%; Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%"]
ROSE: One thing different this year seems to be that the Romney
campaign responds immediately to attacks, while John Kerry did not.
DICKERSON: That's right, although they do respond quickly and in
different ways. They have the candidate do it sometimes, and they have -
they've put out videos on others. What they want to do is, basically,
have Romney stick on the economy, though. So sometimes, the response
will come from other quarters.
ROSE: John Dickerson, thank you.
— Matthew Balan is a news analyst at the Media Research Center. You can follow him on Twitter here.
