MediaWatch: September 1990
Table of Contents:
Bad News Brady
Reporting on the economic effects of the Iraq invasion August 14, CBS News business correspondent Ray Brady announced "more and more economists are saying the outlook will get gloomier...All this means that a major change is hitting the American economy, one that could make any recession longer and deeper." How seriously should CBS viewers take this prediction? A MediaWatch Study has discovered that whenever economic news is bad, Brady will report that it's bad. And when economic news is good, Brady will also report that it's bad.
To quantify the spin CBS is giving viewers about the economy, MediaWatch analysts reviewed every Evening News story from August 1, 1988 to July 31, 1990 in which Brady reported on economic indicators. That included movements of the Dow Jones index as well as conventional government statistics on topics from unemployment to inflation. Of the 41 stories aired between August 1, 1988 and July 31, 1990, 73 percent were negative, 20 percent left an ambiguous impression, and only 7 percent contained a positive message. In 1989 Brady offered 16 negative stories to one positive piece. This year all nine of his indicator reports have been negative.
Of the 74 soundbites from private economists Brady used, 75 percent of the comments on the economy's condition or future prospects were negative. By contrast, 14 percent of their statements were ambiguous and only 11 percent were positive.
Brady's stories were designated negative, positive, or ambiguous based on the information Brady selected to report, the tilt of the sources interviewed, the predictions made, and the conclusions Brady reached. If most sources made positive statements or if Brady explained how the day's news had positive effects on the economy, the story was classified as positive. If Brady balanced positive and negative sources (as he did in a few stories during the 1988 campaign), the story was called ambiguous. In most cases, Brady selected information that reflected badly on the economy, selected sources that predicted recession or expressed fear of the future, and concluded with a negative statement.
The economic boom that began in 1982 has continued throughout the past two years, as unemployment has remained low and GNP growth has posted uninterrupted gains. Brady reflected this reality in just three positive stories. Back on August 5, 1988 he reported a record number of Americans were working in the previous month, as wages continued to increase in the midst of a labor shortage. Brady concluded "labor experts say this is the best time to be looking for work in 25 years."
Brady's usual operating procedure: Pick out the negative sliver in the face of good news. On December 20, 1988, Brady's story on the Christmas shopping season ended: "Retailers' woes might not be over: if they have a good Christmas, many stores could find themselves short of goods in the new year." On March 10, 1989, anchor Charles Kuralt announced: "Ray Brady reports the high employment rate is causing problems." Brady concluded: "With 289,000 new jobs created last month alone, many employers are having trouble finding workers....Rising wages for scarce workers could add fuel to an inflation rate that's already heating up." (It didn't.)
The Dow rose 19 points to 2158, its highest point since Black Monday on October 18, 1989. Brady's spin: 15,000 Wall Street personnel were still out of work, "no one's buying stock," and "prices probably will drop lower in months to come." The next day the Dow fell, prompting Brady to end his story by standing in a cemetery: "There's an old saying in the financial community that Wall Street runs from the river to the graveyard, this graveyard. And that about sums up Wall Street's feeling." (The Dow flirted with a record 3000 before tumbling after the Iraqi invasion.)
On October 26, 1989 when Dan Rather reported that GNP growth had "breezed along" at 2.5 percent, Brady described "a slowing economy." Brady put on Commerce Undersecretary Michael Darby, who called it good news, but then noted that "private economists take another view of today's report." Irwin Kellner explained away the positive figures (they were pumped up by advance auto sales), and Nancy Lazar actually called the report "very discouraging." Independent economists Kellner, Lazar, David Jones, Don Ratazcjak and Gary Shilling represented over a third of Brady's sound-bites of economists. They had something in common: with one exception, they offered only negative assessments.
On December 13, 1989, Dan Rather began the night's economic report with the words "America's staggering debt," and then reported the trade deficit was down 29 percent to its lowest level in five years. To shed bad light on the good news, Rather intoned: "Ray Brady reports European officials hope to cut back this country's most successful long-run export." (Brady then explained how the officials are trying to ban American TV programs.)
The 1989 annual inflation rate was up only slightly from 1988, but on December 27 Dan Rather worried the figures didn't reflect the fact "a product every family uses is climbing with no end in sight...Ray Brady explains why that's worrisome." (The product with a price out of control? Milk.)
Anchor introductions often demonstrated te tenor of Brady's reports: On May 12, 1989, when the Dow climbed 56 points, Connie Chung announced "not everyone was thrilled, as Ray Brady reports." On July 25, car sales were down for the year, but up for the month. Rather's introduction? "Ray Brady reports on the downside of the nation's auto picture."
Of course economic news is often good for some while bad for others. Brady almost always manages to emphasize the losers. On October 12, 1989, home prices were down. That's great news for the buyers, but not for the sellers, so Brady focused on the sellers: "In the past, the American dream of owning your own home always had a sequel -- live in it, then sell it as a huge profit ...So another dream has faded." On March 16, 1990, home prices were rising, so the conclusion switched to the buyers: "So they keep looking. Thousands of young couples like the Wares, looking for that first house, looking for what used to be called the American Dream."
About the only thing Brady's reporting proves is that if you keep reporting the same bad news over and over again, eventually you'll be right. As the saying goes, even a broken clock is correct twice a day. But a broken clock is usually harmless. Misleading economic reporting is not.
